Analysis and Game Plan - 13 November 2018

  • SGX Nifty is down 50 points suggesting a gap down opening, but we should brace for more downside as Dow Jones yesterday fell more than 600 points or -2.32% and it will have ripple effect on other markets.

  • As expected, after diwali, market fell after making an immediate high.

  • India Vix moved up by 9%.

  • Fresh shorts were added in Nifty while there was long unwinding in Bank Nifty.

  • OI an Bank Nifty is less than normal suggesting we can witness adition of shorts.

  • Pain on Nifty is steady and PCR is coming down but still bullish. Any down day with high volume can change that.

  • There was call writing from 10600 to 11000 and put unwinding at 10400 to 10000 while max OI shifted from 11000 to 10700.

  • Pain at Bank Nifty has moved down to 25600 and PCR is at 0.67 suggesting bearish bias.

  • Bank Nifty witnessed call writing on all counters while put writing was negligible.

  • Technically on Nifty and Bank Nifty, we have again gone bearish. To move further up, we need to negate this downside formation backed by data. Given the circumstances, it seem unikely.

  • Crude Oil is trading well below $70 mark.

Conclusion - Trading with Bearish Bias.

Game Plan -

  • I may not need to touch my bear call spread of -9 X 25900 & +9 X 26100.

  • If gapdown is huge, then I will wait for market to retrace to add some short positions near 25450.

  • 25700 is my stoploss for upside. I hope it is not breached.

  • I will be adding 9 or 10 lots today.

Here are my open positions:

9 November 2018 - 15 November 2018.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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