Analysis and Game Plan - 21 November 2018

  • Dow Jones fell by more than 1000 points in last two days. Yesterday was a gapdown by more than 1.5%.

  • Crude Oil fell below $63. I said previously, high crude oil price is as bad as too low prices.

  • SGX Nifty is yet to show any fall, but that can change once our market opens. Sentiment is negative on global factors.

  • Yesterday, I got whipsawed 2 3 times. But I didn't want to get caught in long positions to the upside at top. So as soon as an important level seemed breaching, I changed direction.

  • I am a firm believer that till the assembly elections are done, market will remain uncertain. There is no point being a total bull or bear at the moment for a trader.

  • Nifty witnessed long unwinding yesterday.

  • Nifty pain is stable and PCR is still bullish.

  • There was not much option speculation, but call writing was sligtly more than put writing.

  • 10530 is key. If it fails to hold, then we will resume down trend.

  • On Bank Nifty, there is not much speculation. If we check OI change till 01 November 2018 to yesterday, its only -55,960. Which means index is being managed and not much change is there in future OI.

  • Pain is stable at 26100, but PCR is at 0.88 which is bearish.

  • There was call writing on all counters.

  • We will resume bear trend below 25800.

Conclusion - Trading with bearish bias. If everything goes as it seems, then we will open gapdown and after a minor rise, we will start downward journey. In worst case scenario, we can open down and start rising up, taking support at 26130 or may not open gap down at all.

As I am writing this, SGX Nifty started to move down.

Here are my open positions:

16 November 2018 - 22 November 2018.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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