Analysis and Game Plan - 25 October 2018

  • Dow Jones tumbled yesterday by -2.41%.

  • SGX Nifty is trading negative.

  • Hong Seng futures is down -2%.

  • We are opening gap down today.

  • It is time for expiry trading so I will not constantly update my blog.

  • I have to admit, past 4 days of movement was worst. Although my positions were all safe, but it did gave me a headache yesterday.

  • Nifty Max Pain Continued to move down.

  • PCR is still bearish.

  • Future OI turned positive and Option OI on call side was not much visible apart from call unwinding at 10500 onwards which could be due to less premium.

  • Put writing was visible across 10200, 10100 and 10000.

  • Put writing on November month 10000 was there.

  • Technically, we are bearish on daily and 2 hourly charts and little sideways on 30 min charts. So the overall trend remains bearish.

  • Bank Nifty has expired literally at the same point for last 4 expiries.100-150 points here and there from 25000. We can see something different today. Lets see.

  • Future OI is indecisive for Bank Nifty.

  • Max pain and PCR remained unchanged and is bearish.

  • There was not much call writing or put writing yesterday.

  • Technical charts are all sideways.

  • If we find a trend on bank nifty, we may see a 700 point rally as atr is at 483 and 600-700 is new normal these days.

  • Result lf Yes Bank are pending today. And result of ICICI Bank are tomorrow.

Conclusion -

  • Overall trend is bearish.

  • Nifty has strong support at 10000.

  • Bank Nifty is sideways and can swing any way.

Game Plan -

  • With probable gap down or flat opening, I will slowly exit my positions on need basis of margin for expiry trading below Rs. 3.

  1. I will do expiry trading, so wont be updating my blog frequently like normal days.

  2. Below 24800, I will trade with bearish bias.

  3. Above 25300, I will trade with bullish bias.

  4. I will keep writing calls, unless there is decisive breach to the upside.

  5. If some position goes against me, I will either close or hedge it in 1:10 ratio.

Open positions as of now are: -

19 October 2018 - 25 October 2018.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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