Analysis and Game Plan - 26 November 2018

  • We had a fall on expiry day that I was expecting on previous expiry. So on last expiry I was short and that went wrong. And this expiry I was long, but I was quick to manage it and that made the profit.

  • I have been vocal in my previous posts, that all is not well for market.

  • Trend on Nifty has gone sideways on daily and 2 hourly charts and bearish on 30 minutes charts.

  • PCR is still at 1.25 and pain has not fallen yet.

  • There was call writing on Nifty and put unwinding, which means we can remain sideways or drift lower. We can touch 10600 before moving towards 10400.

  • Bank Nifty has also gone sideways on daily and 2 hourly charts. Its bearish on 30 minute charts.

  • PCR is bearish and call writing was witnessed along with pain moving down.

  • Bank Nifty is giving bearish bias.

  • On daily charts, we might be sitting at a support. I might wait till 11:00 am to take a trade.

  • At any retrace towards 26160, I will take short positions slowly. On reversal I will exit and reverse. Any upside is possible above 26400 only.

  • Any move towards 26160 and fall below 26000 after will be confirmation for a short term bearishness.

  • We will have to wait and watch for few hours to see how market develops.

  • Nobody is talking about it, but margin requirement to sell one lot of nifty has increased considerably in last 3 or 4 trading sessions. I used to pay ₹33000/- for one lot of bank nifty option selling, and not it requires ₹42000/- which is going to affect the quantity and thereby profits. This will make trading in bank nifty difficult for retail option sellers.

Rohit Katwal

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