Analysis and Game Plan - 28 November 2018

  • When we go down, we have trap moves to upside. When we go up, we have trap moves to downside.

  • This is what happened yesterday. Bank Nifty broke 26300 for 5 minutes, just to reverse with momentum. Same happened day before yesterday.

  • India Vix fell by more than 10%.

  • Nifty Pain is steady at 10600 while PCR moved to 1.77 which is bullish.

  • There is not much speculation on Nifty future.

  • We may expire between 10500 and 10800 according to data.

  • Trend seems bullish in all time frames for now.

  • For Bank Nifty, things are getting normal I suppose. From ATR max of 600, we have moved back to a range of 300 for an average period of 14 days.

  • Future OI seems bullish.

  • Pain and PCR is constantly moving up.

  • Trend is bullish for now.

  • There is no major development as far as Dow Jones, SGX Nifty, Crude Oil or Rupee is concerned. All are in favor right now.

Conclusion: Trading with sideways to bullish bias.

Game Plan: Since the momentum will stop because of expiry unwinding and profit booking, I will look to execute naked calls collecting 20 to 25 points.

  • My bull put spread at 26000, 25800 & 26100, 25900 are working fine. If premium squeezed further, then I will square it off for new position.

  • Momentum is slowing down, So I am expecting market to go little sideways with bullish bias. In the both the cases my diagonal put calendar and diagonal call calendar will go fine. I expect market to rise but, it will be beneficial in little expiry. I am targeting 30 points profit in both calendars. Might exit if achieved.

Here are my open positions:

26 November 2018 - 29 November 2018.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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