Analysis and Game Plan - 9 November 2018

  • Dow Jones shot more that 2.5 percent after US Mid Term Elections.

  • Crude has entered bearish phase which is good and bad in its own way.

  • I am still wondering if we have made a temporary high for Nifty and Bank Nifty.

  • India Vix seems to be cooling. Still needs 2 or 3 days for better judgement.

  • On Mahurat Trading, I took a single trade at opening for a little profit on auspicious day. Details are in link 9 November 2018 - 15 November 2018.xlsx

  • I was not sure of the direction, so I refrained from holding it.

  • Trend on SGX Nifty suggest we may open slightly negative.

  • There was long buildup on futures and call unwinding at 10700. But on Tuesday we witnessed call writing at 10700 more.

  • Nifty pain is steady while pcr is bullish.

  • Ban Nifty on weekly expiry witnessed long unwinding. Compared to it, long buildp on mahurat trading was nothing.

  • But pain has started moving up and PCR is neutral.

  • On Expiry, there was call writing more than put writing on Bank Nifty.

  • Major news right now is faceoff between Government and RBI which may remain headlines till 19 November 2018 and can cause little volatility.

Conclusion - Bullish bias till Bank Nifty is above 25420.

Game Plan -

  • I plan to take 7 lots today for 35 to 37 points.

  • If market opens gapup, I will write a bull put spread.

  • If market opens gapdown below 25500 or goes below 25500 after opening, I will write a bear call spread.

  • If market open flats and take support and resists downside at 25500, I will write a put calender. Once above 25800, I will write a bull put spread. If it breaks down, then will exit put calender and write a bear call spread.

Rohit Katwal

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