Analysis and Trade Plan - 10 July 2019

  • Last two days fall in Nifty has started to fill the gap that we formed after exit polls result were out. For the gap to fill, Nifty may slide slowly to 11420 levels where I expect some consolidation now.

  • Bank Nifty has so far survived the gap. Even after a fall of 900 points in single day, we are not where near breaking the 30200 which is the low of this channel. We can slowly drift towards it. If 30200 is broken then we may see further downside towards 29500 levels.

  • I expect market to move down a little today. Below 30350, we can move towards 30200 or can bounce from that level once again.

  • Fed reserves chairman's testimony is underway with congress and everyone is looking for a comments from him so expect market to be sideways till that.

  • TCS results were out yesterday after market hours and it can give a little direction to Nifty post opening.

  • Close to 4.5 lakh future contracts were added to Nifty yesterday. Given that market kept resisting going up, I think shorts were added. It can also be a long buildup. We need followup action.

  • Nifty pain has moved further down to 11600 and PCR at .42 is bearish right now.

  • The fight is going to be on strikes 11500 and 11600 between puts and calls.

  • There was not much option writing yesterday. Data suggests sideways or muted activity. Some calls were unwinded at higher strikes.

  • On Bank Nifty, futures data is still muted with not much activity. It could be short covering.

  • Max pain moved further down to 30700 along with pcr at .52 is still bearish.

  • Change in Cal OI was again more than the change on Put OI. I think we can test 30500 level once again on bank Nifty today before any further direction.

  • I am trading with sideways to bearish bias.

Rohit Katwal

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