Analysis and Trade Plan - 14 March 2019

  • SGX Nifty is suggesting a flat opening.

  • Dow ended higher yesterday.

  • Rupee remains strong, while crude oil has started to move up.

  • In the last three days, FII have pumped in more than 10,000 crores in Indian Markets.

  • Since 5 March, there has not been a single day when Nifty Future did not add open interest. And it is not normal. In the last three days close to or more than 1 million open interest has been added. Surprisingly we have not had any long unwinding or short covering yet. If any short covering comes then market may move further up.

  • PCR for Nifty is at 2.15 and pain is moving up constantly at 11300 right now.

  • Below 11250, there was put unwinding yesterday and put writing above it, still PCR is 2.15 and bullish. Call writing was less compared to put writing.

  • 11300 is for now a strong support zone. We can see some consolidation due to weekly expiry.

  • Net Future position in Bank Nifty is long.

  • With 500 point jump, pain is currently up at 28700 with PCR at 1.8 suggesting bullish bias.

  • We had fresh put writing and call writing yesterday suggesting we have reached a consolidation point.

  • I have learn't with time that expiry trading in Bank Nifty is not about existing trend but managing existing positions by big players. So it needs to be seen how things pan out today. Bias is definitely positive.

  • My two positions are in trouble right now. One is a call calendar which saw an abrupt rise yesterday i.e. -4 X 28900 14 March, +4 X 29400 20 March. Other one is -5 X 28900, +2 X 28800. Lets see how I close them today. But overall it is profit. I haven't yet decided if I will be doing expiry trading.

11 March 2019 - 14 March 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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