Analysis and Trade Plan - 17 January 2019

  • I do believe Nifty has broken to upside and we are consolidating before moving up. If we cross 10830 to downside then break to upside will surely fail. Yesterday to me seemed like a consolidation after a 150 point move.

  • One thing I could not understand is that there was call and put unwinding at all the nearest strikes. Unwinding was higher on the call sides.

  • Pre market nifty is some where touching -143 and -80 which is kind of scary.

  • Dow Jones is in positive territory right now and no surprises for now.

  • Rupee has again went above 71 which adds to worry.

  • Crude is also at $60. It can pose a problem.

  • India Vix went above 16 yesterday.

  • Max Pain is moving up for Nifty and PCR is at 1.30 citing bullish sentiment for now.

  • Today's move by Nifty will give a cue for any further movement.

  • Bank Nifty has been under performing and is majorly waiting for results from index heavy weights to take a direction.

  • Max pain has moved up yesterday but PCR is bearish.

  • Long position were added in futures.

  • It is weekly expiry so we cannot predict which way market will close.

  • I am trading with positive bias for now. But for expiry, OI during the day gives the cue.

Here are my open positions:

14 January 2019 - 17 January 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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