Analysis and Trade Plan - 2 July 2019

  • US China trade truce at G-20 summit helped markets yesterday. Talks with North Korea also is a positive step for now.

  • Protests have again started in Hong Kong against the extradition bill but its effect has not been seen on the asian markets.

  • Hang Seng is up by 1%.

  • SGX Nifty is little positive suggesting a normal opening for our markets.

  • Reliance has been under performing for last few weeks but the fall is not severe.

  • HDFC Bank made an all time high yesterday and that lifted the sentiment in Bank Nifty.

  • Crude Oil fell a little yesterday along with strengthening Rupee which is also good for Indian Markets.

  • Auto sales number came which is not good.

  • So broadly we don't have much good news coming. It is some big companies that are supporting the upmove right now.

  • We had a long buildup on Nifty and Bank Nifty yesterday.

  • Max Pain for Bank Nifty started moving up again, while Nifty's max pain is steady.

  • PCR for Bank Nifty at 1.20 is bullish. PCR for Nifty right now is sideways.

  • In Bank Nifty, there was call unwinding all the way and collective OI of 1.4 Million increased to the Put side.

  • In Nifty, while there was little call writing at 11900 and above strikes, put writing was visible but not significant.

  • While Bank Nifty on 30 minute chart is sluggish but rest of the time frames are hinting at bullish momentum along with data.

  • Above 11900, Nifty wiill also join the party.

  • So, I am a little sideways to bullish on Nifty and moderately bullish on Bank Nifty. Important levels for Nifty are 11900/11760. Important level for Bank Nifty are 31450-31500/31260.

Rohit Katwal

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