Analysis and Trade Plan - 23 April 2019

  • Crude Oil has been inching upward since last few weeks and I signaled that it can make markets jittery. Yesterday's fall was attributed to trumps sanctions and rejection of deadline extension for importing Iranian Oil. We can have more trouble if INR starts to fall.

  • Net short positions were added in Nifty Futures yesterday.

  • 11700 Call witnessed an OI writing of 3 Million. Total OI is 4 Million, and it may act as an immediate resistance in this expiry.

  • Max Pain for Nifty is at 11600 with PCR at 0.88 suggesting a bearish bias. Near OTM PCR is 0.58 which is extremely bearish.

  • Million dollar question is whether after a 250 point fall, we will go sideways or fall further.

  • I am looking at 11550 level. If that is broken, downside may continue. With no extension on Iran Oil, Crude Oil gaining strength, I suspect more downside to come.

  • Also we had a great rally and we need a healthy retracement for any further up-move.

  • Bank Nifty witnessed long unwinding and short buildup yesterday.

  • Call writing was evident throughout the day.

  • Pain has started moving down along with bearish PCR.

  • If we break 29600 with momentum, then Bank Nifty can drift towards 29200 even.

Here are my positions:

22 April 2019 - 25 April 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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