Analysis and Trade Plan - 24 April 2019

  • Trend seems down and till that I have not entered into a single bullish trade. If things are right, I might not add any bullish positions. If there is a chance of bounce back, I will cover some shorts and look to sell puts (conditional).

  • 11600 was support for Nifty yesterday and heavy put writing was witnessed throughout day of close to 1 million. By the end it came down to just 2 Lakh. Call writing was massive again on 11700 with more than 1 million open interest added.

  • PCR is bearish for Nifty and Bank Nifty. Max Pain for Nifty is at 11600 and Bank Nifty at 29600. Pain for Nifty is steady at 11600 which needs to move down. For Bank Nifty pain is already moving down. Either Nifty will follow the downward trend or Bank Nifty can reverse the trend and join Nifty in resisting down move so as they move in tandem. It needs to be seen.

  • Yesterday, if Nifty was going up, then Bank Nifty was going down and vice versa.

  • Net short positions were added on Nifty and Bank Nifty futures yesterday.

  • 11550 is crucial for Nifty. Bank Nifty already gave a 2 hour channel breakout to downside yesterday. Whether it will succeed or fail is yet to be seen. As I said, either nifty will follow in downward move, or both will reverse.

  • No respite for Crude Oil movement yet. It is technically moving higher.

  • INR is also reversing in trend and is moving higher.

  • Dow Jones yesterday closed higher and it can change sentiment for our market a little.

  • I am trading with sideways to bearish bias right now.

Here are my open positions

22 April 2019 - 25 April 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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