Analysis and Trade Plan - 27 March 2019

  • Even if we remain little sideways to bearish (little), then also I don't need to take a trade for today. If some option is near 0, then I might replace it with a better priced option.

  • I mentioned yesterday, that overall trend is up and we may become bullish any time. On 15 minute charts, I got a broken reversal which I immediately took. It tested my patience when Bank Nifty came 100 points down, but I was convinced and for safe side kept hedging it. Mark to Mark hovered near 12,000 loss at one time, but when I entered the values in my excel sheet, I wasn't in that much loss. So I waited and got rewarded. Once market reversed, I removed the hedge to save the cost.

  • Recessions don't come with a news but news does create a panic and that was what happened 2 days back. Dow jones is sideways right now and 1.7% drop just created a trap for bears.

  • 11400 will act as a major support this expiry. Follow Up buying tomorrow or rally is necessary to break past the resistance of 11500. Currently 11500 has PCR of .71 which means it is a resistance. Call Unwinding was huge on 11600 which means 11500 can be broken today.

  • Technically there are also chances for market to drift near 11430 which is not a cause for concern if the fall is limited towards it.

  • Bullish positions in futures were added to Nifty and Bank Nifty.

  • Call unwinding and put writing was clearly visible. We had a 700 point range in Bank Nifty today. Volumes were good according to it.

  • Crude Oil has been consolidating at current level for past many days. If it breaks to upside, then it can be a worrying point. But thats for later date.

  • INR is in comfortable range.


  • I am trading with bullish bias.

  • I will try not to exit my positions unless it is necessary to save them. I might hedge them since the cost will be lower due to expiry.

Here are the updated positions:-

22 March 2019 - 28 March 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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