Analysis and Trade Plan - 3 April 2014

  • RBI monetary policy announcement is scheduled at 11:45 am tomorrow i.e. 4th April 2019.

  • Premiums will remain elevated until then. Vix will either rise or fall based on announcements. Till that time, I think we will remain sideways.

  • Bank Nifty has reached and sustained above 30,000. What was a 300 point safe distance last year for Bank Nifty is no longer a safe distance. 400-500 point range is new normal these days.

  • Currently I am holding bullish positions but vix is high which poses a threat. There is no adverse news right now.

  • Crude Oil has gone above $70 which can be a concern but INR is strengthening.

  • Nifty Future did not witness any OI addition or reduction.

  • Nifty pain is constantly moving up at 11700 and PCR at 1.17 is bullish. Immediate PCR is also bullish. Although there was put writing; quantum was not great. We need more volume which suggest we still can move in either direction.

  • Technically we are bullish on all timeframes. Upper level to look out for are 11740 and lower levels are 11640.

  • OI was added to Bank Nifty futures yesterday.

  • Pain is steady at 30300 and PCR at 0.86 is not bullish. But we are in broad uptrend and when consolidating, PCR tends to be above 0.60 and 1. So if any upper swing comes, PCR will move significantly.

  • There is very less activity in options right now.

  • Technically, we are in uptrend but on lower timeframe we are sideways with bullish bias. Upper level to watch out for are 30650 and lower level is 30150 which gives us a range of 500 points.

  • I am currently trading with a sideways to bullish bias.

Details of my trades are shared below:

1 April 2019 - 4 April 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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