Analysis and Trade Plan - 3 July 2019

  • I get somewhere lost in the noise. I was planning to do strangles this week but then ended up with a bear call spread and now I am managing it.

  • Yesterday, Nifty Bank was bullish and ended lower. Nifty was sideways and It ended bullish.

  • Now today Nifty is giving little bullish signs and Bank Nifty is again bearish. This is a classic case of Index Management.

  • This is 6th straight week when market is sideways. I am little disappointed and frustrated. But this shall pass.

  • Technically we are sideways on all time frames. We are little bullish over 30 minutes chart, but it doesn't count when volatility is like this.

  • Bank Nifty is highly sideways right now.

  • There is literally no activity in the future and options right now.

  • On Nifty, collective OI change in Nifty was just close to 1.15 Lakh yesterday which means that positions are being changing hands but fresh positions were not taken.

  • On Bank Nifty, call writing was more than put writing. Also collective OI change was 16 lakh out of which 14 lakh was on call side and hence my statement that it was a bull trap yesterday. Lets see how that pans out.

  • Max pain movement was not consistent with the index move.

  • PCR for Bank Nifty is sideways and for Nifty it is getting bullish.

  • We are awaiting a trigger of Budget and till then we should remain sideways now.

  • I am trading with sideways bias.

Here are the details of my trades:

28 July 2019 - 04 July 2019.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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